External validation of the post-varicocele repair semen analysis nomogram to predict total motile sperm count: A multicenter study

Abstract

Total motile sperm count is an important parameter for predicting the probability of natural pregnancy. We have externally validated the Samplaski's post-varicocele repair semen analysis nomogram to confirm the predictive accuracy of total motile sperm count. A total of 300 patients who had undergone varicocelectomy between July 2016 and July 2019 from 4 treatment centres were included in this validation cohort study. The predictive performance of the externally validated nomogram was revealed by applying the Pearson correlation coefficient (R=0.328; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.220-0.435; p<.001). Compared to Samplaski's nomogram result (R=0.581; 95% CI 0.186-0.729), our study also revealed a statistically significant rate. However, it had a relatively lower correlation coefficient rate. Notably, the predicted total motile sperm count was lower than the observed post-varicocelectomy total motile sperm count. The calibration plot revealed that the discrepancy between the predicted and observed total motile sperm count was plausible. However, it had low explanatory power in this nomogram model. This validation study demonstrates that the post-varicocele repair Samplaski's nomogram predicts a relatively lower total motile sperm count than the observed count.