Lactate Levels as a Predictor of Emergency Department Revisits in Infants With Acute Bronchiolitis

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to identify predictive biomarkers for unscheduled emergency department (ED) revisits within 24 hours of discharge in infants diagnosed with acute bronchiolitis (AB).

Methods: A retrospective observational study was conducted on infants diagnosed with AB who visited 3 emergency medical centers between January 2020 and December 2022. The study excluded infants with comorbidities, congenital diseases, and prematurity and infants who revisited the ED after 24 hours of discharge. Demographic data, vital signs, and laboratory results were collected from the medical records. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed on factors with P of less than 0.1 in univariable analysis. Receiver operator curve analysis was used to assess the accuracy of lactate measurements in predicting ED revisits within 24 hours of discharge.

Results: Out of 172 participants, 100 were in the revisit group and 72 in the discharge group. The revisit group was significantly younger and exhibited higher lactate levels, lower pH values, and higher pCO2 levels compared to the discharge group. Univariable logistic regression identified several factors associated with revisits. Multivariable analysis found that only lactate was a variable correlated with predicting ED revisits (odds ratio, 18.020; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.764-56.334). The receiver operator curve analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.856, with an optimal lactate cutoff value of 2.15.

Conclusion: Lactate value in infants diagnosed with AB were identified as a potential indicator of predicting unscheduled ED revisits within 24 hours of discharge. The predictive potential of lactate levels holds promise for enhancing prognosis prediction, reducing health care costs, and alleviating ED overcrowding. However, given the study's limitations, a more comprehensive prospective investigation is recommended to validate these findings.